The next major frontier in the weight-loss drug market is set to open in 2026, with pill versions of blockbuster GLP-1 medications expected to reach U.S. patients. Drugmakers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are leading the charge, aiming to offer a more convenient alternative to weekly injections that could expand treatment access.
Analysts project that oral medications could capture nearly a quarter of the global obesity drug market by 2030, representing a value of roughly $22 billion. "Pills lower the barrier to entry," noted a healthcare sector analyst. "They can reach patients who are needle-averse or who don't perceive their condition as severe enough for an injectable."
The Race to Market and Pricing Strategy
Novo Nordisk appears poised to launch first, with its oral semaglutide (the pill form of Wegovy) on track for FDA approval by year-end and a launch in early 2026. Eli Lilly is preparing to file for approval of its pill, orforglipron, by year's end, with a potential regulatory review timeline accelerated by a priority voucher.
While list prices are undisclosed, both companies have signaled competitive pricing. Through a partnership with the TrumpRx platform, starting doses are planned at $149 per month—significantly below the current list price of injectables. This strategic pricing is designed to maximize patient uptake from the outset.
Efficacy and the Emerging Competitive Landscape
Available clinical trial data suggests Novo Nordisk's pill may offer a greater degree of average weight loss (up to 16.6%) compared to Lilly's (12.4%). However, the convenience of a daily pill is expected to be a decisive factor for many, potentially outweighing marginal efficacy differences for a broad patient population.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that Lilly's pill could capture the majority (60%) of the oral market segment by 2030, with Novo Nordisk securing 21%. The remaining share is expected to be contested by a pipeline of experimental pills from companies including Viking Therapeutics, Structure Therapeutics, and Pfizer, ensuring that the pharmaceutical competition in obesity treatment will only intensify.
